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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Fri 22nd Mar 2024 - Update: JD Wetherspoon reports lfls up 5.8% in past seven weeks as half-year revenue almost hits £1bn
JD Wetherspoon reports like-for-like sales up 5.8% in past seven weeks as half-year revenue almost hits £1bn: JD Wetherspoon has reported sales have continued to improve as the company reported record first-half revenue of almost £1bn. Chairman Sir Tim Martin said: “Sales continue to improve. In the last seven weeks, to 17 March 2024, like-for-like sales increased by 5.8%. The company currently anticipates a reasonable outcome for the financial year, subject to our future sales performance.” The company stated: “In summary, the company has recovered steadily from the pandemic, with current sales at record levels. In spite of a reduction in the overall number of pubs, sales have continued to increase – total sales are now about one third higher than in 2015, when the number of pubs peaked, and sales per pub have increased by about 50% since then. Our best estimate is that the company has potential for about 1,000 pubs in the UK.” Total sales for the 26 weeks to 28 January 2024 were a record £991m, a 8.2% increase on last year’s figure of £916.0m. Like-for-like sales were up 9.9% on last year and 15.3% compared with the same period in FY19 – the last full year before the covid pandemic. Like-for-like bar sales increased by 11.6% on last year while like-for-like food sales were up 7.6%, slot/fruit machine like-for-like sales by 10.5% and hotel room like-for-like sales by 2.8%. Profit before tax and separately disclosed items was £36.0m (2023: £4.6m), including property gains of £0.1m (2023: £0.5m). Operating profit was £67.7m compared with £37.4m the previous year, an increase of 81%. In the period, the company sold five pubs, terminated the lease of five pubs and sublet three pubs. This gave rise to a cash inflow of £3.8m. There was a loss on disposal of £5.9m, recognised in the income statement, relating to these pubs. The company opened two pubs – The Star Light at Heathrow airport and the Captain Flinders, close to Euston station in London. The first Wetherspoon franchise pub opened at Hull University in January 2022. The second opened at Newcastle University in September 2023. The third opened at Haven Primrose Valley holiday park, Filey, North Yorkshire, in March 2024 Since 2010, the company has invested £448m in acquiring the freehold “reversions” of pubs where it was previously the tenant. A total of 71% of pubs are now freehold, an increase from 41% in 2010. Debt levels, excluding IFRS-16 lease debt, were £694.2m at the period end (30 July 2023: £641.9m). There was a reduction in trade and other payables of £48m between the last year end and the end of the period under review, which contributed to the increase in borrowings. Total capital investment was £57.2m (2023: £47.8m). A total of £10.5m was invested in new pubs and pub extensions (2023: £10.7m), £34.6m in existing pubs and IT (2023: £27.1m) and £12.1m in freehold reversions of properties where Wetherspoon was the tenant (2023: £10.0m). Sir Tim also said Wetherspoon “continues to be concerned about the possibility of further lockdowns and about the efficacy of the government enquiry into the pandemic, which will not be concluded for several years”. He added: “In contrast, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported on its findings in 2022. The conclusion of professor Balloux, broadly echoed by Professor Dingwall, based on an analysis by the WHO of the pandemic, is that Sweden (which did not lock down), had a covid-19 fatality rate ‘of about half the UK’s’ and that ‘the worst performer, by some margin, is Peru, despite enforcing the harshest, longest lockdown.’ Professor Balloux concludes that ‘the strength of mitigation measures does not seem to be a particularly strong indicator of excess deaths’.”

Propel’s updated Multi-Site Database to be released on Thursday, 28 March, with seven category segmentation including 415 quick service restaurant operators: The next Propel Multi-Site Database, produced in association with Virgate, providing details of more than 3,000 multi-site operators, will be released on Thursday, 28 March, at midday, to Premium Club members – and companies are now searchable in seven main segments. The database features 906 (30%) restaurant operators from the casual dining sector, 761 (25%) pub and bar operators, 504 (16%) cafe bakery operators, 415 (13%) quick service restaurant operators, 249 (8%) hotel operators, 188 (6%) experiential leisure operators and 52 (2%) fine dining restaurant operators. The database is updated each month – this edition includes 16 new companies and brings the total to 3,075. Premium Club members also receive access to five other databases: the Turnover & Profits Blue Book, the New Openings Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database, the UK Food and Beverage Franchisee Database and the Who’s Who of UK Hospitality. Plus, all members will be offered a 20% discount on tickets to five Propel paid-for events – The Excellence in Pub Retailing Conference (14 May), Social Media for Profit (18 July), the Talent and Training Conference (1 October) and Restaurant Marketer and Innovator (two days in January 2025). Operators will also be able to send up to four members of staff to each of our four Multi-Club Conferences for free. Premium Club members receive their daily Propel Info newsletter 11 hours earlier than standard subscribers, at 7pm the evening before. They also receive videos of presentations at eight Propel conference events two weeks after they are held. This represents around 100 videos of industry insight over the course of the year. Premium Club members will be sent a dedicated monthly newsletter that will highlight key updates in the sector and direct subscribers to all the vital content their membership offers. Premium Club members also receive exclusive opinion columns every Friday at 5pm, which include the thoughts of Propel group editor Mark Wingett and a host of industry leaders from across the sector. A Premium Club subscription costs an annual sum of £495 plus VAT for operators and £595 plus VAT for suppliers. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Premium Club for a year for £995 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. Email kai.kirkman@propelinfo.com today to sign up.
 
Consumer confidence ‘stalls’: Consumer confidence has stalled, prompting concern that a sustained recovery in optimism about the UK economy has run out of momentum, a survey has showed. GfK’s long-running consumer confidence index remained unchanged in March at minus 21 points, meaning there has not been a meaningful rise in the reading since November, reports The Times. A fall in GfK’s savings index held back the overall reading, as did greater concern about the economy’s performance over 2023 when it slipped into recession. However, consumers were more upbeat about their personal finances over the coming 12 months. Economists monitor changes in confidence for clues as to how willing consumers are to raise spending. Recent data has signalled that the economy is gathering some momentum, with gross domestic product up by 0.2% in January, suggesting that the country has exited recession. Inflation has fallen from a more than 40-year high of 11.1% to 3.4%, its lowest point since September 2021. Wage growth has also outpaced price increases for several months, meaning that average living standards have improved, although they have yet to recover from the cost-of-living crisis. The Bank of England is also expected to start cutting interest rates from a 16-year high of 5.25% in the summer, delivering a boost to household finances.
 
Fuller’s extends share buyback programme: Fuller’s is extending its share buyback programme. The company stated: “As announced on 21 March 2024, following the repurchase of one million “A” ordinary shares of 40p each in the company under an arrangement with Numis Securities that commenced on 16 November 2023, the company has decided to extend the programme and repurchase up to a further one million ordinary shares. This is consistent with the company’s capital allocation framework and reflects the board’s view that the current share price continues to represent a significant discount to the company’s underlying net asset value. The programme is expected to enhance earnings per share. The share purchases will be made on the company’s behalf and in accordance with the arrangement and, in the case of any purchases made during closed periods and/or at any time when the company has inside information, shall be made independently of and uninfluenced by the company. Any market purchase of ordinary shares under the programme will be announced no later than 7.30am on the business day following the day on which the purchase occurred.”

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